George Barker has a very good chance to win this one for the Democrats but despite some conventional wisdom, he’s not going to be able to do it on the favorable shifting population numbers alone. It’s true that we have seen great returns in the district since the last State Senate election.
- In 2003, Jay O’Brien defeated Greg Galligan by about 5,000 votes.
- In 2004, Bush won it with just 51%.
- In 2005, Kaine flipped the 2003 results, besting Kilgore by a little more than 6,000 votes.
- And in 2006, Webb reaffirmed that result against a South County resident-incumbent in Allen.
These numbers all sound great right? Well, of course, 2006 is nothing like 2003 or 2007. It was a federal election and a statewide campaign with national attention. And 2005, while a little closer to a realistic comparison, is still a far cry as an election with three very competitive statewide races in addition to a super-competitive House of Delegates race (42nd- Albo v. Werkheiser) in the fastest growing part of the district. This year we have the State Senate race and a couple of Supervisor races which likely won’t be very competitive.
So what exactly has the population shift been? Between 2003 and this fall’s election we will have netted about 8,500-9,000 new voters. Assuming we get 50% turnout among this group (4,500) and assuming Barker gets 75% of this vote (3,375)- both absurd assumptions – we still don’t get the vote we need to make up for the 2003 deficit. More likely only 25% of those new voters will vote. And among those new voters, perhaps 60% are Democratic. That improves Barker’s margin by about 1,300 votes. About a quarter of what he’ll need to win.
This is not to say that we can’t win or that new voters are our only hope. There are a number of factors running strongly in our favor. My only narrow point is that an influx of new progressive voters is not going to be the difference-maker and it does not explain the recent trend. In that sense, the performance numbers of the last four years are pure deception. It isn’t so much that we’ve benefited from a mammoth demographic shift (though we have gotten significant benefit from some change) as much as existing residents have changed their voting habits to vote for some Democratic candidates - Kerry, Kaine, and Webb.
It’s not even clear that these people would be interested in turning out for a State Senate race. (And that’s why of course turnout is vital in these off-year elections). But it’s even less clear how much of that recent performance we can bank for Barker. O’Brien’s ties to, and focus on, the 39 precincts in the district will presumably earn him some Kaine crossover. The hardest work will be convincing these Kaine-O’Brien voters to change their vote to George Barker. To put it another way: Jay O’Brien outperformed Mark Earley’s performance against Mark Warner in 2001 by about 7%. Even in this newer, bluer 39th State Senate District, if O’Brien outperforms Jerry Kilgore by a similar margin- he wins.
