So yeah, I’m finishing up my last year of law school, taking a couple classes, representing a criminal defendant in Rockville for Criminal Justice Clinic, working part-time at a firm in Fairfax, trying to keep up with some Democratic party duties, and all the while we’re going to have a baby any day now. Those are my excuses.
But I found a few minutes this morning and I’d like to riff off of something Ben posted this morning. Ben has posted his early predictions for the legislative elections and they look awfully weird to me. They’re weird because all the talk I’ve heard and all the polling I’ve seen indicate that this election is shaping up as a wave. It’s clear that Ben is not reading this election as a wave. In fact, his prediction has barely changed in months. Sure- his predictions point to a successful year for Democrats, but nothing spectacular. A wave is something different. A wave is when bad candidates, vastly outmatched candidates, and candidates in awful districts, win. A wave brings in not only those toss-up competitive races in Democratic-trending districts with sufficiently financed candidates that Ben didn’t include like Barker and Janet, it also sweeps in people like Donahue, Brown, Pollard, Del Toro, Brennan, Rishell, Martinez, Bouchard and Schultz.
Will it be a wave? My thinking right now is yes.
September 17, 2007 at 3:40 pm
I’m inclined to agree with you, but in “wave” elections, sometimes a few of the candidates don’t make it. My doubt is cast on Rishell and Martinez (even though he is a good friend, I know him well, and he would be GREAT!)—I just think the districts aren’t quite there.
I am definitely with you on the Janet and George scorecard, however, both of whom at this point I see winning, although Janet by a slightly larger margin than George. It might be reversed though–we shall see.
We need to GOTV in Lee and Mt Vernon areas of the 39th, that’s for sure.
September 17, 2007 at 10:22 pm
Yeah, I didn’t mean to imply ALL those candidates would win and there could be some I didn’t mention that will win. In waves it’s hard to predict which of that next tier will make it through. Who in October 2006 thought that Darcy Burner would lose but Dave Loebsack would win?
September 18, 2007 at 9:18 am
Dave Loebsack’s parents and maybe his dog thought he would win. Otherwise no one else. In all honesty I don’t know who Dave Loebsack is so, I will have to take you word for it.
Given that turnout is going to be so low I think the combination of anger on the Democratic side and apathy on the Republican side, could create the wave you are talking about. I don’t know enough about the races to say who will and won’t benefit, but I would think any Democrats in Fairfax county would be able to take advantage of it.
October 4, 2007 at 11:21 am
If this were a federal year, then I could see how a wave could be in place (not unlike last year’s elections).
There is no statewide race on the ballot, so there are a lot of voters who may be frustrated with the GOP who may not be turning out (this statement is being made 32 days out from the election). Turnout for year 4 in the Virginia cycle (Yr 1/President, Yr2, governor, Yr 3 federal, Yr 4 statehouse/constitutional) is notoriously low.
In fact, I bet under your logic that this is a base election that folks like Cuccinelli are in better shape than you might think because they have stayed faithful to their base and will turnout their voters, which might make the difference in a low turnout year.
More later at my joint…
October 5, 2007 at 9:17 am
[...] set that in abeyance…now, over at Power Concedes, Brimur contends this will be a wave election with big election gains for the Democrats. His primary evidence for [...]