My Senate Ratings

About a month out, here’s where I think things stand in the State Senate. (incumbents underlined, projected winners in bold)

Likely Turnover
34th District – Chap Petersen OVER Jeannemarie Devolites Davis
1st District – John Miller OVER Tricia Stall

Leans Turnover
39th District – George Barker OVER Jay O’Brien
6th District – Ralph Northam OVER Nick Rerras
37th District – Janet Oleszek OVER Ken Cuccinelli

Toss-Up
29th District – Chuck Colgan vs. Bob Fitzsimmonds
27th District – Jill Holtzman Vogel vs. Karen Schultz

Leans Retention
28th District – Richard Stuart OVER Al Pollard
22nd District – Ralph Smith OVER Mike Breiner

Likely Retention
13th District – Fred Quayle OVER Steve Heretick
33rd District – Mark Herring OVER Patricia Phillips
20th District – Roscoe Reynolds OVER Jeff Evans
17th District – Edd Houck OVER Chris Yakabouski

Keep in mind that these are the 13 even remotely competitive races. If Breiner and Heretick win, the Republican party will really line up the circular firing squad. You may want to get your popcorn ready.

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2 Responses to “My Senate Ratings”

  1. Ghost of A.L. Philpott Says:

    I agree for the most part, but I would probably move Northan into the “Likely Turnover” category. While it would be nice to have a Breiner victory, I believe the makeup of that district has ultimately done his campaign in. Its a very conservative district, and Ralph Smith has served it before. He’s able to run as a generic Republican, too, which in that district, is good enough for many folks.

    As for Roscoe Reynolds, based on some of the latest internals, this one is over. It appears many Republican leaders are feeling the same way and starting to pull out.

  2. not ralph smith Says:

    The momentum in the 22nd is moving to Breiner. He is on the offensive in mail and on TV. Ralph Smith was the early favorite, but has not really run a campaign up to this point. He just assumed he would win. Smith now finds himself completely unprepared for Breiner’s assault and is scrambling to put a campaign together in the last two weeks. I don’t think that’s good enough. Breiner wins a close one.

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