Why John Edwards Will Win Iowa

UPDATE: Check out this MSNBC poll. Pay particular attention to the question about first-time caucus-goers and second choice.

Disclaimer: As many know, I did work for John Edwards in Iowa in 2004 and am still supporting him.

There are four basic dynamics which the media has chosen to ignore which should have a serious impact on the Iowa caucus results. This analysis doesn’t account for a couple of major factors which could also be critical. Momentum is always important. Who will have the momentum after Christmas? And caucus experience matters. Whose staff will maximize their advantage with knowledge of caucus math and guts to persuade shaky supporters of other candidates in the middle of the caucus rather than just hiding out in their candidate’s corner? But I’m predicting that these four dynamics will be decisive:

1) Who Is Voting?
The magic question in the Iowa caucus is who will vote? For various reasons polling the caucus is incredibly difficult. While people may self-identify as voters, it’s difficult to cost-effectively ascertain whether each respondent actually understands what is required to vote in a caucus (e.g. publicly declaring your vote to all your neighbors, waiting around for as much as a few hours, missing most of the Orange Bowl, etc.). Therefore, the only hints we have about the reliability of candidates’ support are the internals of polls. While polls do vary, Edwards generally leads among experienced caucus-goers and among age groups more likely to vote – namely those over the age of 35. Hillary does lead among the all-important 65+, but retirees aren’t as important in the caucus as non-retired voters over 50 since absentee voting isn’t an option.

2) Who Else Are They Voting For?
In most elections that question doesn’t even make sense. But in Iowa it’s arguably more important than the first question. Across the state, votes for also-rans like Richardson, Biden, Dodd and Kucinich would probably collectively garner anywhere from 20-40 points in a traditional primary. But in most precincts those candidates won’t have enough support to be “viable”. Under caucus rules, if a candidate does not have at least 15% in a precinct those voters either have to convince others to support their candidate, support another candidate themselves, or go home. In most cases people won’t just go home. They are already there and want their vote to be counted. For example, in 2004 I persuaded about 10 Kucinich voters to support Edwards when they were just 2 votes short of viability.

This is why the fact that Edwards consistently leads as the “second choice” of Democratic caucus voters could be huge. This gap will only widen due to the 3rd dynamic.

3) Who Are They Not Voting For?
A related issue to second choice is last choice. While this isn’t exactly a polled question, it’s a real phenomenon. In 2004 Dean and Gephardt became a lot of caucus-goers “last choice” because of the nasty negative turn their campaigns took in the final 2 weeks. This voter anger directly benefited Kerry and Edwards. While it’s hard to see from outside the state, it seems that Obama and Clinton are repeating that same old mistake.

4) Where Are They Voting?
Again, this might not matter in a traditional primary but it matters a lot in the Iowa caucus. Without getting into the hairy details, having exceptional support in a few areas is not nearly as valuable as being “viable” everywhere. If a candidate is viable in all precincts that are awarded more than 1 delegate and in the majority in all the small (mostly rural) precincts that are awarded only 1 delegate then they would have the overwhelming majority (approx. 2/3) of the vote. John Edwards’ campaign, according to all the anecdotal evidence and the limited polling broken down by region, benefits from a much more even distribution of support across the state.

Edwards On Top

Iowa Poll – 7/23-7/25
Previous poll results from May are in parentheses.

John Edwards – 27% (26)
Clinton – 22% (28)
Obama – 16% (22)
Undecided – 16% (10)
Richardson – 11% (7)

Meanwhile, Undecided has secured an even stronger lead on the Republican side…

Undecided – 22% (22)
Romney – 16% (16)
Thompson – 14% (9)
Giuliani – 13% (17)
McCain – 10% (18)

Via the Des Moines Register

This is What I’m Talking About

This is an example of why I support John Edwards for President.

Edwards will help regular families save and get ahead by:

• Creating a Get Ahead Credit, which will expand the Savers Credit to match savings up to $500 a year, providing as much as an additional dollar for every dollar of savings.
• Boosting low-income families’ savings with work bonds, which will supplement the Earned Income Tax Credit to match the savings of low-income workers up to $500 per year.
• Exempting from taxes each family’s first $250 in interest, capital gains, and dividends.
• Allowing families to deposit part or all of their child tax credit into a tax-free savings account.
• Expanding the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit to pay up to 50 percent of child care expenses up to $5,000 and make it partially refundable to benefit low-income working families.
• Tripling the EITC for 4 million adults without children and cutting the marriage penalty for 3 million families.

Time after time, while others have talked a good game, on the issues that really matter to people that are struggling, Edwards has pushed forth concrete proposals. Keep making me proud Johnny Reid!

Haircut

John Edwards the Elitist?

With all the talk about $400 haircuts do you think they’ll even notice that John Edwards is the only major Democratic presidential candidate that has never sent his kids to private school?

Comparing Burn Rates

In fund-raising, a measure arguably more important than any other is “burn rate”. Burn rate is the percentage of the total money a candidate brings that they send right back out the door. Higher burn rates, especially in the early phases of a campaign, can be fatal. We’re still months away from the point in which the most expensive aspects of the primaries – heavy television and direct mail buys – begin.

According to the recent reports here is the burn rate ranking among all the candidates that have raised the competitive sum of $10 million or more:

1. Clinton – 35.3%
2. Obama – 39.6%
3. Edwards – 44.6%
4. Richardson 47.1%
5. Dodd – 53.4%
6. Giuliani – 54.1%
7. Romney – 72.7%
8. McCain – 90.5%

Hillary Clinton’s Internet Campaign

That Hillary Clinton spoof video was the first sign of imagination from the Clinton campaign.

Look at a comparison of the three major Democratic campaigns’ traffic:

That massive spike is the effect of Hillary’s Soprano ad.

2004 Redux?

Man, did Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama learn nothing from the negative primary campaigns of Gephardt and Dean?

In recent days, some of the high-minded sheen of Obama’s candidacy has been tarnished by an opposition research memo circulated anonymously by his staff that outlines the record of his main rival for the nomination, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, on outsourcing. Obama later apologized for the memo–which described Clinton as the senator from Punjab, India–after the Clinton campaign obtained it and made it available to reporters.

But the behind-the-scenes skirmishing between the campaigns continued. Asked to respond to the Obama speech on Friday, a Clinton campaign spokesman offered to provide opposition research anonymously and not-for-attribution to the campaign. When those terms were rejected, the Clinton spokesman declined to comment.”

Negative campaigning in a multi-candidate race is a totally losing proposition. And yet the two marquee candidates on the Democratic side are already engaged in all out press war – it’s ONLY JUNE!

This calls for moving John Edwards up on the horserace.

Horserace Update: 1) John Edwards 2) Hillary Clinton 3) Barack Obama 4) Bill Richardson

What Influences Matter In Politics?

I didn’t actually get to watch because I don’t have cable, but I heard good things about the CNN forum on faith in politics with the top Democratic candidates for President. I think forums like this are important if they are an authentic source of morality and values for each candidate. Voters want to know who they are electing and a critical part of this understanding is learning the candidate’s source of inspiration to serve.

While I am not personally somebody that waves their religion in anyone’s face, I do understand why voters would want to know more about the motivations of those that seek to represent them. At the same time, there should be similar opportunities for the discussion of secular influences on the candidates. As a Christian, the Sermon on the Mount means an awful lot to me but so too does the example of my parents, and the example of my pappaw.

So what influences matter? All of them. There’s no reason for us to be scared to discuss faith with our leaders, or those that hope to lead us, but there’s also no reason why that should be the end of the conversation. And wouldn’t it be so much more interesting to see more real conversations with the candidates than more of the same mind-numbing over-prepped “debates”. Anybody can deliver the script they’ve been trained to regurgitate in response to a particular question- the influences that shape that person and how they have responded to particular situations in their own life are the things that set individuals apart and those things really do matter in politics.

Presidential Horserace

From time to time I’d like to check in on the presidential horserace. I’ll post where I think the major candidates in both parties stand and you can consider it an open opportunity to discuss the 2008 race.

The Donkeys: 1) Edwards 2) Hillary 3) Obama 4) Richardson

John Edwards is in the best position to win this primary despite the fund-raising and national poll position of the other two major contenders. But his lead is incredibly slim. He needs to sweep Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina. He also needs to outperform expectations in New Hampshire (and Florida if it stays in a pre-February 5th position) which probably means 2nd place. Such a sweep would almost totally nullify the financial disadvantage heading into a primary across 20 states. Even if the other candidates each have 50 million dollars by February 5th that will hardly be enough to overcome the free media that the early primary performance will provide.