Edwards On Top

Iowa Poll – 7/23-7/25
Previous poll results from May are in parentheses.

John Edwards – 27% (26)
Clinton – 22% (28)
Obama – 16% (22)
Undecided – 16% (10)
Richardson – 11% (7)

Meanwhile, Undecided has secured an even stronger lead on the Republican side…

Undecided – 22% (22)
Romney – 16% (16)
Thompson – 14% (9)
Giuliani – 13% (17)
McCain – 10% (18)

Via the Des Moines Register

Comparing Burn Rates

In fund-raising, a measure arguably more important than any other is “burn rate”. Burn rate is the percentage of the total money a candidate brings that they send right back out the door. Higher burn rates, especially in the early phases of a campaign, can be fatal. We’re still months away from the point in which the most expensive aspects of the primaries – heavy television and direct mail buys – begin.

According to the recent reports here is the burn rate ranking among all the candidates that have raised the competitive sum of $10 million or more:

1. Clinton – 35.3%
2. Obama – 39.6%
3. Edwards – 44.6%
4. Richardson 47.1%
5. Dodd – 53.4%
6. Giuliani – 54.1%
7. Romney – 72.7%
8. McCain – 90.5%

McCain

I’ve resisted downgrading McCain on the horserace for a while now, but today’s news is the straw that broke the camel’s back. After languishing in the polls, among the base, in fundraising (and in particular burn rate), and now bleeding top staff, John McCain has undoubtedly slipped.

Since Fred Thompson’s halo may be fading even before he’s officially announced and Giuliani appears to have peaked, I have to put Mitt Romney on top.

Mitt, for all his awful shortcomings has run a very tight ship. He’s raised the most money (though if you take out what he’s spent and the 9 million of his own money you don’t have any more than McCain- but it pays to be rich doesn’t it?). And he’s consistently leading in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire.

I also just don’t think that Giuliani is going anywhere in a GOP primary. I may be dead wrong, but I don’t buy it.

Horserace Update: 1) Mitt Romney 2) John McCain 3) Fred Thompson 4) Rudy Giuliani

Vacuum In GOP Field

What the hell? Where did all the GOP donors go? I would knock McCain down on the horse race, but I wouldn’t know who to nudge up. You could put Romney on top, he’s said to have the most competent staff, he’s leading in the early states and has the most money. But he’s also the worst possible candidate for the GOP. He is the most awful stereotype of a Republican- patrician, blue blood, detached from reality by his loads of money, and patronizing. And he also has a tendency to fib pretty badly.

Or I could put Giuliani on top, he’s got the star power and the fundraising capacity. But are the Republican crazies really going to stand for the abortion issue, the gay marriage issue, the multiple marriages, and the cross-dressing videos?

Or I could put Thompson on top. He’s done a good job of sculpting a conservative maverick image out of nowhere in the last few months. But he hasn’t even announced yet! More to the point, I’m not convinced he will have the interest or stamina to mount any kind of consistent effort. But hey, the front porch thing might work for the GOP nomination this time around. As weak as their field is looking.

No Horserace Change, Yet

How much has Obama raised?

Barack Obama has raised almost 350,000 contributions from almost 250,000 unique donors. Simply astounding.

So how much has he raised?

McCain Regains Some Position

It appears that Mitt Romney’s fund-raising is dwindling, Rudy Guiliani has plateau’d and John McCain will be right there in the mix at the top of the GOP pile for fundraising in the second quarter. It’s still hard to tell what impact Fred Thompson will have on the race. We’re still in the Washington buzz delirium phase of his place in the horserace. Not a good time to take an accurate temperature. I still don’t see him having the energy or enthusiasm required to run. But, contrary to the suggestion made in my last post, I have been wrong before.

John McCain may also benefit from the recent deal that temporarily broke the logjam on the immigration debate. If he can find a way to triangulate a bit on this one, possibly with an amendment, he might escape Iowa after all.

2004 Redux?

Man, did Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama learn nothing from the negative primary campaigns of Gephardt and Dean?

In recent days, some of the high-minded sheen of Obama’s candidacy has been tarnished by an opposition research memo circulated anonymously by his staff that outlines the record of his main rival for the nomination, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, on outsourcing. Obama later apologized for the memo–which described Clinton as the senator from Punjab, India–after the Clinton campaign obtained it and made it available to reporters.

But the behind-the-scenes skirmishing between the campaigns continued. Asked to respond to the Obama speech on Friday, a Clinton campaign spokesman offered to provide opposition research anonymously and not-for-attribution to the campaign. When those terms were rejected, the Clinton spokesman declined to comment.”

Negative campaigning in a multi-candidate race is a totally losing proposition. And yet the two marquee candidates on the Democratic side are already engaged in all out press war – it’s ONLY JUNE!

This calls for moving John Edwards up on the horserace.

Horserace Update: 1) John Edwards 2) Hillary Clinton 3) Barack Obama 4) Bill Richardson

21-51: Ranking the State Senate

Kenton Ngo, the blogger prodigy, inspired me to write up my own list of which State Senate districts are most likely to switch hands this fall.

Likely Democratic Pickup
1. 34th District – Chap Petersen v. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis
Chap is doing everything right here. He’s raising enough money to be competitive, he’s working hard and he’s also running in a district which he has, in substantial part, already represented. But the bottom line is that the numbers in the district have gotten so far away from the Republicans. Tom Davis may try his tricks but they’re not going to work on a candidate like Chap who always works like he’s 20 points down.

2. 6th District – Ralph Northam v. Nick Rerras
The State GOP have known that Rerras is their weakest incumbent for some time. And now Northam has shown that he is willing and capable to put the fundraising work in to finish the job. This has to be the GOP’s most concerning race.

Fred Thompson Is In

Fred Thompson, the television president and part-time sleazeball, is jumping into the race. This definitely has the potential to seriously upset race dynamics. It’s unclear at this point just how much momentum Thompson’s got because his team has done a great job at this roll-out and the media has been all too complicit due to boredom with the current GOP field. In a month we’ll have a clearer idea of just where to place him in the horserace- but for now:

Horserace Update: 1) John McCain 2) Rudy Giuliani 3) Fred Thompson 4) Mitt Romney

I’m keeping McCain on top, for now, as the field reshuffles and settles with Thompson getting in. This is definitely subject to change dramatically over the next month. And Romney automatically gets leapfrogged because nothing other than fund-raising and a solid organization convinces me he’s a real contender- he’s outside of the mainstream of his party, he’s been caught in a number of lies and fabrications, he’s northeastern, and on, and on.

Horserace Page

As you can see above, I’ve added a permanent “horserace” page for the 2008 Presidential. I’ll keep this updated so please check back and offer your thoughts.