Comparing Burn Rates

In fund-raising, a measure arguably more important than any other is “burn rate”. Burn rate is the percentage of the total money a candidate brings that they send right back out the door. Higher burn rates, especially in the early phases of a campaign, can be fatal. We’re still months away from the point in which the most expensive aspects of the primaries – heavy television and direct mail buys – begin.

According to the recent reports here is the burn rate ranking among all the candidates that have raised the competitive sum of $10 million or more:

1. Clinton – 35.3%
2. Obama – 39.6%
3. Edwards – 44.6%
4. Richardson 47.1%
5. Dodd – 53.4%
6. Giuliani – 54.1%
7. Romney – 72.7%
8. McCain – 90.5%

McCain

I’ve resisted downgrading McCain on the horserace for a while now, but today’s news is the straw that broke the camel’s back. After languishing in the polls, among the base, in fundraising (and in particular burn rate), and now bleeding top staff, John McCain has undoubtedly slipped.

Since Fred Thompson’s halo may be fading even before he’s officially announced and Giuliani appears to have peaked, I have to put Mitt Romney on top.

Mitt, for all his awful shortcomings has run a very tight ship. He’s raised the most money (though if you take out what he’s spent and the 9 million of his own money you don’t have any more than McCain- but it pays to be rich doesn’t it?). And he’s consistently leading in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire.

I also just don’t think that Giuliani is going anywhere in a GOP primary. I may be dead wrong, but I don’t buy it.

Horserace Update: 1) Mitt Romney 2) John McCain 3) Fred Thompson 4) Rudy Giuliani

Vacuum In GOP Field

What the hell? Where did all the GOP donors go? I would knock McCain down on the horse race, but I wouldn’t know who to nudge up. You could put Romney on top, he’s said to have the most competent staff, he’s leading in the early states and has the most money. But he’s also the worst possible candidate for the GOP. He is the most awful stereotype of a Republican- patrician, blue blood, detached from reality by his loads of money, and patronizing. And he also has a tendency to fib pretty badly.

Or I could put Giuliani on top, he’s got the star power and the fundraising capacity. But are the Republican crazies really going to stand for the abortion issue, the gay marriage issue, the multiple marriages, and the cross-dressing videos?

Or I could put Thompson on top. He’s done a good job of sculpting a conservative maverick image out of nowhere in the last few months. But he hasn’t even announced yet! More to the point, I’m not convinced he will have the interest or stamina to mount any kind of consistent effort. But hey, the front porch thing might work for the GOP nomination this time around. As weak as their field is looking.

No Horserace Change, Yet

McCain Regains Some Position

It appears that Mitt Romney’s fund-raising is dwindling, Rudy Guiliani has plateau’d and John McCain will be right there in the mix at the top of the GOP pile for fundraising in the second quarter. It’s still hard to tell what impact Fred Thompson will have on the race. We’re still in the Washington buzz delirium phase of his place in the horserace. Not a good time to take an accurate temperature. I still don’t see him having the energy or enthusiasm required to run. But, contrary to the suggestion made in my last post, I have been wrong before.

John McCain may also benefit from the recent deal that temporarily broke the logjam on the immigration debate. If he can find a way to triangulate a bit on this one, possibly with an amendment, he might escape Iowa after all.

Presidential Horserace

From time to time I’d like to check in on the presidential horserace. I’ll post where I think the major candidates in both parties stand and you can consider it an open opportunity to discuss the 2008 race.

The Donkeys: 1) Edwards 2) Hillary 3) Obama 4) Richardson

John Edwards is in the best position to win this primary despite the fund-raising and national poll position of the other two major contenders. But his lead is incredibly slim. He needs to sweep Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina. He also needs to outperform expectations in New Hampshire (and Florida if it stays in a pre-February 5th position) which probably means 2nd place. Such a sweep would almost totally nullify the financial disadvantage heading into a primary across 20 states. Even if the other candidates each have 50 million dollars by February 5th that will hardly be enough to overcome the free media that the early primary performance will provide.