Comparing Burn Rates

In fund-raising, a measure arguably more important than any other is “burn rate”. Burn rate is the percentage of the total money a candidate brings that they send right back out the door. Higher burn rates, especially in the early phases of a campaign, can be fatal. We’re still months away from the point in which the most expensive aspects of the primaries – heavy television and direct mail buys – begin.

According to the recent reports here is the burn rate ranking among all the candidates that have raised the competitive sum of $10 million or more:

1. Clinton – 35.3%
2. Obama – 39.6%
3. Edwards – 44.6%
4. Richardson 47.1%
5. Dodd – 53.4%
6. Giuliani – 54.1%
7. Romney – 72.7%
8. McCain – 90.5%

McCain

I’ve resisted downgrading McCain on the horserace for a while now, but today’s news is the straw that broke the camel’s back. After languishing in the polls, among the base, in fundraising (and in particular burn rate), and now bleeding top staff, John McCain has undoubtedly slipped.

Since Fred Thompson’s halo may be fading even before he’s officially announced and Giuliani appears to have peaked, I have to put Mitt Romney on top.

Mitt, for all his awful shortcomings has run a very tight ship. He’s raised the most money (though if you take out what he’s spent and the 9 million of his own money you don’t have any more than McCain- but it pays to be rich doesn’t it?). And he’s consistently leading in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire.

I also just don’t think that Giuliani is going anywhere in a GOP primary. I may be dead wrong, but I don’t buy it.

Horserace Update: 1) Mitt Romney 2) John McCain 3) Fred Thompson 4) Rudy Giuliani

Vacuum In GOP Field

What the hell? Where did all the GOP donors go? I would knock McCain down on the horse race, but I wouldn’t know who to nudge up. You could put Romney on top, he’s said to have the most competent staff, he’s leading in the early states and has the most money. But he’s also the worst possible candidate for the GOP. He is the most awful stereotype of a Republican- patrician, blue blood, detached from reality by his loads of money, and patronizing. And he also has a tendency to fib pretty badly.

Or I could put Giuliani on top, he’s got the star power and the fundraising capacity. But are the Republican crazies really going to stand for the abortion issue, the gay marriage issue, the multiple marriages, and the cross-dressing videos?

Or I could put Thompson on top. He’s done a good job of sculpting a conservative maverick image out of nowhere in the last few months. But he hasn’t even announced yet! More to the point, I’m not convinced he will have the interest or stamina to mount any kind of consistent effort. But hey, the front porch thing might work for the GOP nomination this time around. As weak as their field is looking.

No Horserace Change, Yet

Hillary Clinton’s Internet Campaign

That Hillary Clinton spoof video was the first sign of imagination from the Clinton campaign.

Look at a comparison of the three major Democratic campaigns’ traffic:

That massive spike is the effect of Hillary’s Soprano ad.

How much has Obama raised?

Barack Obama has raised almost 350,000 contributions from almost 250,000 unique donors. Simply astounding.

So how much has he raised?

Deeds Impressing

At the event I mentioned in the last post I also got to talk to Creigh. Strangely enough he recognized me and appropriately, (if not accurately) in his role with the Senate Democratic Caucus, exhorted me to support all of our State Senate candidates including George Barker. (I assured him that I have consistently been resolved to do my part to make sure we win all these State Senate races. Primaries are important, if temporarily divisive, but at the end of the day we’ve all got the same goal.)

I’ve got to say I was impressed with Creigh for picking me out of a lineup. This small proof that the modest Deeds has some pretty good raw political skills, combined with his highly amusing, self-deprecating interview with the Ditzocrats has Creigh’s stock rising. He’s still got a good ways to go to trump Brian Moran with me, but I am pleasantly surprised. Sure would like to see them work something out.

McCain Regains Some Position

It appears that Mitt Romney’s fund-raising is dwindling, Rudy Guiliani has plateau’d and John McCain will be right there in the mix at the top of the GOP pile for fundraising in the second quarter. It’s still hard to tell what impact Fred Thompson will have on the race. We’re still in the Washington buzz delirium phase of his place in the horserace. Not a good time to take an accurate temperature. I still don’t see him having the energy or enthusiasm required to run. But, contrary to the suggestion made in my last post, I have been wrong before.

John McCain may also benefit from the recent deal that temporarily broke the logjam on the immigration debate. If he can find a way to triangulate a bit on this one, possibly with an amendment, he might escape Iowa after all.

2004 Redux?

Man, did Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama learn nothing from the negative primary campaigns of Gephardt and Dean?

In recent days, some of the high-minded sheen of Obama’s candidacy has been tarnished by an opposition research memo circulated anonymously by his staff that outlines the record of his main rival for the nomination, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, on outsourcing. Obama later apologized for the memo–which described Clinton as the senator from Punjab, India–after the Clinton campaign obtained it and made it available to reporters.

But the behind-the-scenes skirmishing between the campaigns continued. Asked to respond to the Obama speech on Friday, a Clinton campaign spokesman offered to provide opposition research anonymously and not-for-attribution to the campaign. When those terms were rejected, the Clinton spokesman declined to comment.”

Negative campaigning in a multi-candidate race is a totally losing proposition. And yet the two marquee candidates on the Democratic side are already engaged in all out press war – it’s ONLY JUNE!

This calls for moving John Edwards up on the horserace.

Horserace Update: 1) John Edwards 2) Hillary Clinton 3) Barack Obama 4) Bill Richardson

The Connolly Machine

Do you hear that? It’s the deafening roar of those annoying voters silenced. Gerry Connolly, the freakish 4-foot tall toothy menace with the biggest Napoleon complex the world’s ever seen, had a very good day yesterday. He woke up early, ate a big breakfast, swept the ballot with his machine candidates, and left a juicy quote for the Post daring his numerous and growing ranks of opponents to come after him again.

Don’t worry Gerry, in due time, and not by proxy either.

Negative Campaigns

Greg Galligan’s massive loss to George Barker brings home an awful reality. Negative campaigns- especially in low information races- work. George Barker went very negative toward the end and Greg Galligan mentioned George Barker a grand total of ZERO times. On another blog I was indirectly accused of being dishonest about the nature of Barker’s campaign, so in keeping the promise I made in response, here are some of the things Barker put out there. This isn’t all of it, just what I was able to get my hands on.

barker-hit-piece.pdf

barker-contrast-piece.pdf

barker-voter-guide.jpg

While I have little doubt that George probably could have won without his scurrilous attacks (hats off to his great turnout in what everyone knew, going in, were HIS precincts), the deafening margin is clearly a result of the negative mail voters received in the final week. When voters know little to nothing about the candidates they are especially susceptible to such tactics. Imagine: the voter looks at the materials from both candidates, both candidates print positive aspects of themselves and only one prints negative aspects of their opponent. This voter, not having any other impressions from which to test the validity of the attack, only knows good things about one candidate and at least something bad about their opponent. This accounts for Greg falling short of his IDs in the neutral precincts.

The downside of negative campaigns is that there are now literally dozens of local volunteers that will be difficult, if not impossible, to convince to work for the nominee. I, for one, believe strongly that regardless of what has happened we must defeat Jay O’Brien. But George Barker has some serious explaining to do. Time will only tell if he is willing to put in the necessary work to re-unite the party.