The Worst Presidential Campaign That Never Happened

Now that we’re closing in on labor day weekend it’s clear that Fred Thompson is either not a candidate- or the worst candidate of the field. This guy had a real shot to sweep in and take out the weak Republican field but instead, over the last 3 months, Thompson has lost his momentum, the media’s interest, and (I would argue) the interest of many impatient Republican activists. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney has only further solidified his status as the default frontrunner. Besides winning the Ames straw poll, he has widened his lead in early states and has largely kept his feet out of his mouth.

And now out of Ames, Thompson will have new trouble consolidating support at the “consensus conservative” because while it doesn’t appear that Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee will earn sufficient support to be a true contender, he has garnered enough momentum to cleave off a significant chunk of the vote Thompson would be counting on.

Short of an announcement that Thompson has hired Karl Rove as his new campaign manager, Fred is done. Sorry Chris.

Horserace Update: 1) Mitt Romney 2) John McCain 3) Rudy Giuliani 4) Mike Huckabee

Comparing Burn Rates

In fund-raising, a measure arguably more important than any other is “burn rate”. Burn rate is the percentage of the total money a candidate brings that they send right back out the door. Higher burn rates, especially in the early phases of a campaign, can be fatal. We’re still months away from the point in which the most expensive aspects of the primaries – heavy television and direct mail buys – begin.

According to the recent reports here is the burn rate ranking among all the candidates that have raised the competitive sum of $10 million or more:

1. Clinton – 35.3%
2. Obama – 39.6%
3. Edwards – 44.6%
4. Richardson 47.1%
5. Dodd – 53.4%
6. Giuliani – 54.1%
7. Romney – 72.7%
8. McCain – 90.5%

McCain

I’ve resisted downgrading McCain on the horserace for a while now, but today’s news is the straw that broke the camel’s back. After languishing in the polls, among the base, in fundraising (and in particular burn rate), and now bleeding top staff, John McCain has undoubtedly slipped.

Since Fred Thompson’s halo may be fading even before he’s officially announced and Giuliani appears to have peaked, I have to put Mitt Romney on top.

Mitt, for all his awful shortcomings has run a very tight ship. He’s raised the most money (though if you take out what he’s spent and the 9 million of his own money you don’t have any more than McCain- but it pays to be rich doesn’t it?). And he’s consistently leading in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire.

I also just don’t think that Giuliani is going anywhere in a GOP primary. I may be dead wrong, but I don’t buy it.

Horserace Update: 1) Mitt Romney 2) John McCain 3) Fred Thompson 4) Rudy Giuliani

Vacuum In GOP Field

What the hell? Where did all the GOP donors go? I would knock McCain down on the horse race, but I wouldn’t know who to nudge up. You could put Romney on top, he’s said to have the most competent staff, he’s leading in the early states and has the most money. But he’s also the worst possible candidate for the GOP. He is the most awful stereotype of a Republican- patrician, blue blood, detached from reality by his loads of money, and patronizing. And he also has a tendency to fib pretty badly.

Or I could put Giuliani on top, he’s got the star power and the fundraising capacity. But are the Republican crazies really going to stand for the abortion issue, the gay marriage issue, the multiple marriages, and the cross-dressing videos?

Or I could put Thompson on top. He’s done a good job of sculpting a conservative maverick image out of nowhere in the last few months. But he hasn’t even announced yet! More to the point, I’m not convinced he will have the interest or stamina to mount any kind of consistent effort. But hey, the front porch thing might work for the GOP nomination this time around. As weak as their field is looking.

No Horserace Change, Yet