My Senate Ratings

About a month out, here’s where I think things stand in the State Senate. (incumbents underlined, projected winners in bold)

Likely Turnover
34th District – Chap Petersen OVER Jeannemarie Devolites Davis
1st District – John Miller OVER Tricia Stall

Leans Turnover
39th District – George Barker OVER Jay O’Brien
6th District – Ralph Northam OVER Nick Rerras
37th District – Janet Oleszek OVER Ken Cuccinelli

Toss-Up
29th District – Chuck Colgan vs. Bob Fitzsimmonds
27th District – Jill Holtzman Vogel vs. Karen Schultz

Leans Retention
28th District – Richard Stuart OVER Al Pollard
22nd District – Ralph Smith OVER Mike Breiner

Likely Retention
13th District – Fred Quayle OVER Steve Heretick
33rd District – Mark Herring OVER Patricia Phillips
20th District – Roscoe Reynolds OVER Jeff Evans
17th District – Edd Houck OVER Chris Yakabouski

Keep in mind that these are the 13 even remotely competitive races. If Breiner and Heretick win, the Republican party will really line up the circular firing squad. You may want to get your popcorn ready.

21-51: Ranking the State Senate

Kenton Ngo, the blogger prodigy, inspired me to write up my own list of which State Senate districts are most likely to switch hands this fall.

Likely Democratic Pickup
1. 34th District – Chap Petersen v. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis
Chap is doing everything right here. He’s raising enough money to be competitive, he’s working hard and he’s also running in a district which he has, in substantial part, already represented. But the bottom line is that the numbers in the district have gotten so far away from the Republicans. Tom Davis may try his tricks but they’re not going to work on a candidate like Chap who always works like he’s 20 points down.

2. 6th District – Ralph Northam v. Nick Rerras
The State GOP have known that Rerras is their weakest incumbent for some time. And now Northam has shown that he is willing and capable to put the fundraising work in to finish the job. This has to be the GOP’s most concerning race.