21-51: Ranking the State Senate

Kenton Ngo, the blogger prodigy, inspired me to write up my own list of which State Senate districts are most likely to switch hands this fall.

Likely Democratic Pickup
1. 34th District – Chap Petersen v. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis
Chap is doing everything right here. He’s raising enough money to be competitive, he’s working hard and he’s also running in a district which he has, in substantial part, already represented. But the bottom line is that the numbers in the district have gotten so far away from the Republicans. Tom Davis may try his tricks but they’re not going to work on a candidate like Chap who always works like he’s 20 points down.

2. 6th District – Ralph Northam v. Nick Rerras
The State GOP have known that Rerras is their weakest incumbent for some time. And now Northam has shown that he is willing and capable to put the fundraising work in to finish the job. This has to be the GOP’s most concerning race.

Leans Democratic Pickup
3. 28th District – Al Pollard v. Richard Stuart
A great Democratic candidate against a divided GOP in a less than solid GOP district. I like Pollard’s odds.

Toss-Up
4. 39th District – George Barker v. Jay O’Brien
George showed that he could run a tough race and get great results in the primary. The big challenges for him will be to raise money, re-unite his base, and realize that the general election requires a much bigger strategy than he required in the primary. For instance, George’s impressive vote total in Clifton isn’t even 1/3 of the total he’ll need to win the precinct this fall, based on the 2003 numbers.

5. 37th District – Janet Oleszek v. Ken Cuccinelli
I don’t know why I’ve slid this campaign so far down, and maybe it’s a bit unfair. But I think Cuccinelli is a gifted campaigner and a gifted motivator of his base. Janet is a really likeable candidate I just don’t know how to measure her grassroots skills other than looking at her results against Bulova 2 years ago. On the other hand, she has done a very good job of raising the money she needs and in a normal turnout distribution she wins it in a walk. For now, I think Cuccinelli has some serious advantages but this race, more than any other, is subject to becoming very competitive very quickly.

6. 29th District – Chuck Colgan v. Bob Fitzsimmonds
I’ll be honest that I don’t know a whole lot about this race other than a little random buzz. Fitzsimmonds doesn’t strike me as a terribly great candidate, but while our incumbent is generally popular and well-regarded, he is a reluctant candidate and this is a Republican district.

Could Become Competitive: 27th District (Dem Pickup); 33rd District (GOP Pickup); 1st District (Dem Pickup)(Updated)

Likely Republican Pickup
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Leans Republican Pickup
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Senate Outlook — 21–19
If the election were held under the current terms, we win the 34th, 6th, 28th, and probably one of the two between the 39th and the 37th.